在经过一年缓慢下降之后，美国7月通胀数据出现反弹。由于基数效应减退等因素影响，美国通胀近期回升概率较大，在市场和美联储的博弈中，可能扰动美货币政策实施节奏。

　　8月10日，美国劳工部公布数据显示，美国7月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨3.2%，高于6月的3%，环比上涨0.2%，与6月持平。尽管7月CPI低于市场预期，但这是在连续12个月下降后，美国CPI同比增速首次反弹。有分析指出，去年同期CPI高企带来的基数效应正逐步减退，再加上核心服务CPI（除住房外）回升，反映在数据上，近期美国整体CPI增速或有所回升。

　　通胀反弹并未影响市场的乐观情绪。7月CPI同比涨幅不及预期的3.3%，再加上7月非农业部门新增就业人数为18.7万，低于市场预期。这让一些机构预计美联储货币政策的节奏将放缓，年内即使不降息，也不会再加息了，保持利率水平不变可能性较大。

　　去年以来美联储的11次加息中，通胀数据恰如美联储的指挥棒，拨弄着市场心弦，使其预期如钟摆一样来回摇摆。与此同时，忽高忽低、时好时坏的美国经济数据，又如和声一般呼应着美联储的节奏。表面上，通胀等经济数据是美联储作出加息决定的依据，但综合美联储有关表态看，加息的真正理由往往是美联储对数据的个性化解读，其中有不少判断难以令市场信服，这成为市场与美联储之间分歧不断扩大的根源之一。

　　在7月底的货币政策会议后，美联储主席鲍威尔再次强调降低通胀的决心，称“要实现通胀率降至2%的目标，还有很长的路要走”。有分析认为，美联储对年内的政策路径描述得比较模糊，强调未来是否会加息将根据各项经济指标来决定，包括通胀、就业、消费数据等，但是其“鹰派”底色依旧未变。

　　需要关注的是，如果美联储执意坚持加息，恐怕不得不以一次较小规模的市场出清作为代价，否则债台高筑的美国经济出现“硬着陆”风险较大。

　　类似事件的迹象近期已经有所显露。8月7日，国际评级机构穆迪宣布将制造商和贸易商银行、韦伯斯特金融公司等10家美国中小银行信用评级下调一级，并将纽约梅隆银行、美国合众银行、道富银行、北方信托银行等6家美国大型银行的信用评级列入下调观察名单。

　　穆迪认为，持续加息造成的利率高企、远程办公导致写字楼需求下降，以及金融机构收紧对商业地产项目授信，令商业地产风险敞口扩大成为银行业关键风险，许多美国银行盈利压力日益增大。英国媒体称，美国地区性银行仍在依赖数以千亿计美元的政府融资维持运转。有分析指出，从过往经验看，陷入危机的美国中小银行要么重组要么被大行吸收合并，以此摆脱困局。

　　更大的风险来自于美国拜登政府。8月9日，美国总统拜登签署行政令设立对外投资审查机制，限制美国主体投资中国半导体和微电子、量子信息技术和人工智能等领域。此举严重损害中美两国乃至世界工商界利益，给在华外资企业特别是一些美资企业带来极大风险，借用拜登先生的话来说，这才是“坏人”干的坏事。（本文来源：经济日报 作者：连 俊）

After a year of slow decline, the US inflation data for July rebounded. Due to factors such as the weakening of the base effect, there is a high probability of a recent rebound in US inflation, which may disrupt the pace of US monetary policy implementation in the game between the market and the Federal Reserve.

On August 10th, the US Department of Labor released data showing that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July increased by 3.2% year-on-year, higher than 3% in June and 0.2% month on month, unchanged from June. Although the CPI in July was lower than market expectations, this is the first time that the year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI has rebounded after 12 consecutive months of decline. Analysis has pointed out that the base effect brought about by high CPI during the same period last year is gradually decreasing, and coupled with the rebound in core service CPI (excluding housing), it is reflected in the data that the overall CPI growth rate in the United States may have rebounded in the near future.

The rebound in inflation has not affected the market's optimism. The year-on-year increase in CPI in July was less than expected at 3.3%, and in addition, the number of new employment in the non agricultural sector in July was 187000, which was lower than market expectations. This has led some institutions to predict that the pace of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will slow down, and even if interest rates are not lowered within the year, there will be no further interest rate hikes, making it highly likely that interest rates will remain unchanged.

In the 11 rate hikes by the Federal Reserve since last year, inflation data has been like the Fed's baton, playing the heartstrings of the market and causing its expectations to swing back and forth like a pendulum. At the same time, the fluctuating economic data of the United States echoes the rhythm of the Federal Reserve like a harmony. On the surface, economic data such as inflation are the basis for the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates. However, based on the Fed's statements, the real reason for raising interest rates is often the Fed's personalized interpretation of the data, which makes many judgments difficult to convince the market. This has become one of the root causes of the widening divergence between the market and the Federal Reserve.

After the monetary policy meeting at the end of July, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell once again emphasized his determination to reduce inflation, stating that "there is still a long way to go to achieve the target of reducing inflation to 2%". Some analysts believe that the Federal Reserve's description of the policy path for the year is relatively vague, emphasizing that whether future interest rate hikes will be determined based on various economic indicators, including inflation, employment, consumption data, etc. However, its hawkish background remains unchanged.

It should be noted that if the Federal Reserve insists on raising interest rates, it may have to come at the cost of a smaller market liquidation, otherwise the debt ridden US economy poses a greater risk of a "hard landing".

Signs of similar events have recently emerged. On August 7th, the international rating agency Moody's announced a downgrade of the credit ratings of 10 small and medium-sized US banks, including Manufacturers and Traders Bank and Webster Financial, and added the credit ratings of 6 large US banks, including New York Mellon Bank, United States Bank, State Street Bank, and Northern Trust Bank, to the downgrade observation list.

Moody's believes that the high interest rates caused by continuous interest rate hikes, the decrease in demand for office buildings due to remote work, and the tightening of credit facilities for commercial real estate projects by financial institutions have made the expansion of commercial real estate risk exposure a key risk in the banking industry, and many US banks are facing increasing profit pressure. According to British media, regional banks in the United States are still relying on billions of dollars in government financing to maintain their operations. Analysis has pointed out that based on past experience, small and medium-sized banks in the United States that are in crisis either need to restructure or be absorbed and merged by major banks to get out of the predicament.

The greater risk comes from the Biden administration in the United States. On August 9th, US President Biden signed an executive order establishing an external investment review mechanism to restrict US entities from investing in fields such as Chinese semiconductors and microelectronics, quantum information technology, and artificial intelligence. This move seriously damages the interests of China, the United States, and even the world's business community, bringing great risks to foreign-funded enterprises in China, especially some American enterprises. To borrow Mr. Biden's words, this is the bad thing done by "bad people". (Source of this article: Economic Daily Author: Lian Jun)