持续高通胀加剧英国家庭财务危机 英国央行或再次加息
栏目:热点透视 发布时间:2022-02-10

新华社记者黄泽民

  英国消费者价格指数连月来居高不下,屡破纪录。英国中央银行英格兰银行日前表示,英国通胀率将持续上行,并在4月达到7.25%的峰值。物价飞涨导致英国民众生活水平不断下降。

  英国零售商协会日前发布的报告显示,1月英国零售商品价格同比涨幅升至1.5%,为2012年12月以来新高。英国零售商协会首席执行官海伦·迪金森表示,随着大宗商品价格与运输成本等持续上涨,未来零售商品价格不断攀升局面仍无法避免。

  “舆观”民意调查公司日前发布的报告显示,超过八成英国民众关注能源开支和食品杂货价格上涨,超过四成受访者表示今年家庭财务状况或将恶化。

  持续高通胀之下,低收入家庭首当其冲。英国全国经济与社会研究所日前表示,本轮通胀的主要原因是燃料和食品价格上涨,通胀将加剧不平等现象。

  英国能源市场监管机构天然气和电力市场办公室本月3日宣布,能源价格上限将从4月起上涨54%,影响约2200万客户,每户英国家庭仅此一项每年需多支付693英镑。

  英国智库决议基金会研究员亚当·科利特表示,英国政府并未针对低收入家庭出台专门措施,能源账单超过总预算10%的家庭数量将翻倍。

  考虑到英国劳动力市场紧张,且有迹象表明高通胀将更持久,英格兰银行3日宣布将基准利率从0.25%上调至0.5%。

  分析人士普遍认为,英国央行近期可能再次加息。英国工业联合会经济学家阿尔佩什·帕莱贾表示,未来几个月通胀压力将持续存在,英国央行近期可能再次收紧货币政策。

  万神殿宏观经济学研究公司预测,基准利率将逐步上升,并在5月升至1.0%。凯投国际宏观经济咨询公司表示,今年年底前基准利率或将升至1.25%,明年或将进一步小幅提升。

  英国商会经济研究负责人苏伦·蒂鲁表示,英国央行正寻求控制通胀,但能源成本高涨和供应链危机持续是本轮高通胀的诱因,加息发挥效果有限。


(责任编辑:苗苏)

Xinhua News Agency reporter Huang Zemin


The UK consumer price index has remained high for several months, repeatedly breaking records. The Bank of England, the central bank of England, said a few days ago that inflation in the UK will continue to rise and peaked at 7.25% in April. Soaring prices have led to a continuous decline in the standard of living of the British people.


According to a report released by the British Retail Consortium a few days ago, UK retail commodity prices rose by 1.5% year-on-year in January, the highest since December 2012. Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said that as commodity prices and transportation costs continue to rise, it is inevitable that retail commodity prices will continue to rise in the future.


According to a recent report released by the public opinion polling company "Yuguan", more than 80% of the British people are concerned about energy expenditure and rising grocery prices, and more than 40% of the respondents said that the household financial situation may deteriorate this year.


Under the continued high inflation, low-income families bear the brunt. The UK National Institute for Economic and Social Research said recently that the main reason for this round of inflation is fuel and food prices, inflation will increase inequality.


The Office of Gas and Electricity Markets, the UK's energy market regulator, announced on the 3rd of this month that the energy price cap will rise by 54% from April, affecting about 22 million customers, and each British household will need to pay an extra £693 a year for this alone.


Adam Collett, a researcher at the Resolution Foundation, a British think tank, said that the British government has not introduced special measures for low-income households, and the number of households with energy bills exceeding 10% of the total budget will double.


Taking into account the tight labor market in the UK and there are signs that high inflation will be more persistent, the Bank of England announced on the 3rd that it will raise the benchmark interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%.


Analysts generally believe that the Bank of England may raise interest rates again in the near future. Alpesh Paleja, an economist at the Confederation of British Industry, said that inflationary pressures will persist in the next few months, and the Bank of England may tighten monetary policy again in the near future.


Pantheon Macroeconomics Research predicts that the benchmark rate will gradually rise and rise to 1.0% in May. Capital International Macroeconomic Consulting said that the benchmark interest rate may rise to 1.25% by the end of this year, and may further increase slightly next year.


Suren Thirou, head of economic research at the British Chamber of Commerce, said that the Bank of England is seeking to control inflation, but high energy costs and continued supply chain crises are the incentives for this round of high inflation, and interest rate hikes have limited effect.



(Editor in charge: Miao Su)