来源：华尔街见闻

　　Timiraos的最新文章中援引了通胀数据令人失望、通胀降温坎坷的业内观点，他还引用了亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克的最新讲话，“也许我们应该在11月暂停降息”。Timiraos指出，投资者一直在重新考虑美联储降息的速度，因为最近的劳动力市场数据显示美国经济可能强于预期。尽管投资者仍认为美联储将在今年剩下的两次会议上降息，但他们现在认为，明年的降息速度和整个降息周期的降息幅度，都比几周前的预期要小。

　　有“新美联储通讯社”之称的知名财经记者Nick Timiraos撰文称，美国9月CPI通胀报告喜忧参半，通胀降温之路继续坎坷。

　　Timiraos指出，9月CPI报告是是2024年美国总统大选前的最后一份 CPI 报告，也是选举前人们将看到的最后几份重要的通胀报告之一。美国民主党面临的挑战是，他们一方面希望从表现出显著活力的美国经济中收获功劳，另一方面又要应对公众对物价上涨的不满。

　　美国通胀率已回落至拜登总统上任后的水平。然而，通胀率虽然降温，但并没有受到许多美国人的热烈欢迎，因为食品杂货、餐馆餐食、住房、保险等所有商品的价格，仍远高于四年前的水平。

　　最新数据凸显了上述矛盾。通胀率继续沿着非常不平衡的路径下降，这使得美联储官员和经济学家很难完全相信高通胀已经得到遏制。

　　周四的CPI报告是美联储官员在下次会议前将要看到的三个通胀数据中的第一个。Timiraos表示，初步估计显示，美联储首选的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出价格指数，在9月的涨幅将低于CPI。周五，美国劳工部将公布9月PPI数据，经济学家们预计该通胀率较8月会略有放缓。

　　Timiraos援引牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家Ryan Sweet的评论：

这令人失望，但通胀率下降、向美联储的目标靠拢的过程，将是坎坷的。

有一些特殊情况，比如体育赛事和大学教科书价格上涨。

这份CPI报告发布后，通胀前景并没有真正改变。劳动力市场似乎不会对通胀构成重大的上行风险。

　　Timiraos援引亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克的话。博斯蒂克表示，他早就预计经济数据会出现月度波动，这可能会使发现潜在趋势变得复杂。不过，最新数据并没有改变他对美联储明年需要进行一系列降息的预期：

我一直在说，我们应该预计数据会有所波动——我一直用的是“不稳定”这个词。我们可能会不时收到不稳定的报告。但问题是，它们是否预示着一种新趋势？

博斯蒂克投票支持上个月50基点的大幅降息，在那次会议上，他预计今年将再降息四分之一个百分点。博斯蒂克周四最新表示，根据经济前景，他认为在今年接下来的两次会议上都降息或在其中一次降息都是合理的，但最近参差不齐的数据表明，“也许我们应该在11月暂停降息。我对这一点持绝对开放的态度。”

　　投资者预计美联储将在下次会议中将利率下调四分之一个百分点，而上个月美联储已将利率大幅下调了半个百分点。9月FOMC会议公布的点阵图显示，大多数官员预计今年将再降息两次，每次四分之一个百分点。美联储今年还有两次会议。

　　Timiraos指出，投资者一直在重新考虑美联储降息的速度，因为最近的劳动力市场数据显示美国经济可能强于预期。尽管投资者仍认为美联储将在今年剩下的两次会议上降息，但他们现在认为，明年的降息速度和整个降息周期的降息幅度，都比几周前的预期要小。

　　同样在周四，美国劳工部报告称，上周首次申请失业救济的美国人数量升至一年多以来的最高水平。虽然这可能反映了飓风海伦的影响，但也给其他显示裁员水平非常低的数据增添了警示。在上周五出人意料地强劲的非农就业报告发布后，股市上涨。

Source: Wall Street News

Timiraos' latest article cites industry sentiment that inflation data is disappointing and inflation is cooling bumpy, and he also cites Atlanta Fed President Bostic's latest speech that "maybe we should pause rate cuts in November." Timiraos noted that investors have been reconsidering the pace of Fed rate cuts as recent labor market data suggests that the United States economy may be stronger than expected. While investors still believe that the Fed will cut rates at the remaining two meetings of the year, they now believe that the pace of rate cuts next year, and the magnitude of rate cuts throughout the cycle, will be smaller than expected just a few weeks ago.

Nick Timiraos, a well-known financial journalist known as the "New Fed News Agency", wrote that the United States CPI inflation report for September was mixed, and the road to cooling inflation continued to be bumpy.

Timiraos noted that the September CPI report is the last CPI report before the 2024 United States presidential election and one of the last major inflation reports that people will see before the election. The challenge for the United States Democrats is that they want to reap the credit for the remarkable dynamism of the United States economy while dealing with public dissatisfaction with rising prices.

United States inflation has fallen back to levels since President Biden took office. However, while inflation has cooled, it has not been warmly welcomed by many United States, because the prices of everything from groceries, restaurant meals, housing, insurance and more are still well above what they were four years ago.

The latest data highlights these contradictions. Inflation continues to fall along a very uneven path, which makes it difficult for Fed officials and economists to fully believe that high inflation has been contained.

Thursday's CPI report is the first of three inflation data Fed officials will see ahead of the next meeting. Preliminary estimates suggest that the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, will rise less than the CPI in September, Timiraos said. On Friday, the United States Labor Department will release September PPI data, which economists expect to slow slightly from August.

Timiraos quoted Ryan Sweet, chief United States economist at Oxford Economics, as saying:

It's disappointing, but the process of falling inflation and getting closer to the Fed's target will be bumpy.

There are some special cases, such as sports events and college textbook prices.

The inflation outlook hasn't really changed since the release of this CPI report. The labor market does not appear to pose significant upside risks to inflation.

Timiraos cites Atlanta Fed President Bostic. Bostic said he had long expected monthly fluctuations in economic data, which could complicate spotting underlying trends. However, the latest data did not change his expectation that the Fed would need to make a series of rate cuts next year:

I've been saying that we should expect some fluctuations in the data – and I've always used the word "unstable". We may receive unstable reports from time to time