美国债市:国债收盘涨跌互现 交易员比起CPI更关注申领失业救济数据
栏目:热点透视 发布时间:2024-10-11

美国国债周四收盘涨跌互现,曲线前端收益率下跌,远端收益率上升。虽然9月CPI涨幅超过预期,但首次申领失业救济人数大幅增加受到了更大关注,美联储降息溢价上升。油价的大幅上涨令长债收益率和盈亏平衡通胀率面临上行压力。在30年期国债发行后,这种压力减轻。

  在尾盘交易中,2年期国债收益率当日下跌约4个基点,而30年期国债收益率上升超过3个基点;2s10s和5s30s利差均走阔约5个基点,低于债券拍卖前触及的盘中高点。

  美国财政部续发220亿美元30年期国债中标收益率报4.389%,较投标截止时的发行前交易水平低约1.5个基点。一级交易商获配比例为12.2%,为一年来最低,间接投标人获配比例跃升至创纪录水平80.5%,而直接投标人获配比例降至7.4%,为最低纪录之一。

  标售完成后,5s30s利差从盘中最阔水平回落。

  在30年期国债发行之前,曲线大幅趋陡,此前发布的9月CPI数据高于预期,同时出炉的上周首次申领失业救济人数升至一年多来的最高水平。

  随后互换合约消化的美联储11月降息幅度一度约为23个基点,高于周三的19个基点;交易员更关注的是首次申领失业救济数据。

  在SOFR期权方面,交易员继续押注美联储会再进行一次幅度为25个基点的降息,然后按下暂停键。

  截至纽约时间下午3:38,2年期国债收益率报3.9761%;

  5年期国债收益率报3.901%;

  10年期国债收益率报4.0785%;

  30年期国债收益率报4.3722%;

  5年和30年期国债收益率差报47.12个基点;

  2年和10年期国债收益率差报10.03个基点。



United States Treasuries closed mixed on Thursday, with front-of-curve yields falling and far-end yields rising. While CPI rose more than expected in September, the sharp increase in initial jobless claims received more attention, with the Fed's interest rate cut premium rising. The sharp rise in oil prices has put upward pressure on long-term bond yields and breakeven inflation. After the issuance of the 30-year Treasury bonds, this pressure eased.


In late trading, the 2-year yield fell about 4 basis points on the day, while the 30-year yield rose more than 3 basis points. Both the 2S10S and 5S30S spreads widened by about 5 basis points, below the intraday highs touched before the bond auction.


The United States Treasury Department's $22 billion renewal 30-year Treasury bond bid yielded 4.389%, about 1.5 basis points below the pre-issuance trading level at the tender close. Primary dealers were allotted at 12.2%, the lowest in a year, indirect bidders jumped to a record 80.5%, while direct bidders fell to 7.4%, one of the lowest on record.


After the auction was completed, the 5s30s spread fell from the widest level in the session.


The curve steepened sharply ahead of the 30-year Treasury bond issuance, following the release of higher-than-expected CPI data for September, while last week's initial jobless claims rose to their highest level in more than a year.


The Fed's November rate cut, which was then digested by swap contracts, was about 23 basis points at one point, up from 19 basis points on Wednesday; Traders are more focused on the data on initial jobless claims.


On the SOFR options front, traders continue to bet on another 25bp rate cut by the Fed before hitting the pause button.


As of 3:38 p.m. New York time, the 2-year Treasury yield was at 3.9761%;


The yield on the 5-year Treasury note was at 3.901%;


The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was at 4.0785%;


The yield on the 30-year Treasury note was at 4.3722%;


The spread between 5-year and 30-year Treasury yields was 47.12 basis points;


The spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields was 10.03 basis points.